Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
